Europe faces up to new space challenges

European ministers met Wednesday in Spain aiming to defend its top space ranking against challenges from the United States and China, and increasingly from industry disruptors such as Elon Musk's Space X. Ministers of the 22 European Space Agency (ESA) member states gathered in Seville to discuss a request for 14.3 billion euros in funding, some four billion euros more than in the previous 3-year budget. The European Union has already agreed to provide 16 billion euros and now the crucial question is what to spend it on. "There is a desire to do more, to have a more ambitious scientific programme and to develop our infrastructure to match our ambitions," ESA spokesman Philippe Willekens told AFP last week. In a fast changing environment, "Europe must pay attention to remain the leader in those sectors it already is and to continue to conquer new markets," Willekens added. In recent years, Europe has established itself as a major space player, with its very heavy Ariane 6 rocket launcher the latest off the production line and the Galileo GPS system operational. But this position is now "threatened," the Institut Montaigne think-tank in Paris says, as global competition increases, led by the United States and China who have poured massive amounts of money into the industry, both civilian and military. "Europe does not have the structural advantages of the Americans and Chinese because it does not have a single, shared objective," said Isabelle Sourbes-Verger of France's National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS).

"Europe has the same problem it has always had -- what justifies spending more on space?"

- 'New Space' challenge -

Europe must answer these questions just as new players such as Space X and a host of others, mostly American, have begun to emerge, shaking up the industry.

This "New Space" evolution has seen Musk for example develop reusable launchers for dramatically smaller yet more powerful satellites, many designed for the "connected world" of driverless cars and countless other aspects of everyday life on earth.

Some experts fear that Europe is simply not competitive enough to get into these new markets, never mind holding on to what it already has.

Ariane 6 is a particular cause for concern, with French state audit officials recently describing its economic model as "presenting some risks" given ferocious competition from Space X which in 2017 took Arianespace's global satellite launch crown.

Space X has forced down costs sharply, developing a reusable rocket which the Europeans thought initially to be impossible, the officials said.

Worse still, Europe "at this stage has only developed the building blocks which will allow, in due time, to acquire" this re-usable technology, the auditors said in a report.

Arianespace head Stephane Israel insists that Ariane 6 is "just the beginning" and the rocket programme "opens a cycle of innovations which will have to be accelerated."

At the same time, Ariane 6, whose first flight is scheduled for next year, will not be competitive in the long-run unless there is a high rate of launches, which will depend in turn on "numerous institutional orders," he said.

US government orders account for some 80 percent of Space X's scheduled work, he recalled.

Israel noted in this context recent supportive comments by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Europe should favour European launch options.

Sourbes-Verger at CNRS cautioned that "space is not a commercial industry like any other -- making money with a launcher is ambitious."

Europe should therefore continue to focus on "original projects and on developing its strong points," such as in scientific space efforts, she added.

Boeing CST-100 Starliner takes next step for orbital flight test

The Boeing CST-100 Starliner spacecraft that will launch to the International Space Station on the company's uncrewed Orbital Flight Test for NASA's Commercial Crew Program (CCP) has taken a significant step toward launch. Starliner rolled out of Boeing's Commercial Crew and Cargo Processing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Nov. 21, making the trek on a transport vehicle to Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. "This is critical to our future as a nation," said Kennedy's center director Bob Cabana. "We've got to get astronauts flying on U.S rockets from U.S. soil, and this is just a huge step forward." Cabana was joined by CCP and Boeing leaders in a gathering of employees and families to watch Starliner roll out of the factory. "For the team that has built the first American spacecraft designed to land on land, and to get it rolling out, is absolutely incredible," said John Mulholland, Vice President and Program Manager of Boeing Commercial Crew Programs. "Something this complex takes a huge team." "Look at that amazing sight and what your success looks like," said Kathy Lueders, NASA's Commercial Crew Program Manager. "We're not done yet. We've got to step into the mission carefully, fly this vehicle up to the space station, and bring it home safely." At the pad, Starliner was hoisted up at the Vertical Integration Facility and secured atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket for the flight test to the space station. The Atlas V rocket that will carry Starliner comprises a booster stage and dual-engine Centaur upper stage, as well as a pair of solid rocket boosters.

NASA astronauts Mike Fincke and Nicole Mann and Boeing astronaut Chris Ferguson were on hand to witness the rollout milestone ahead of the uncrewed flight test.

"This is the dawn of a new era," said Ferguson. "For all of you youngsters out there who came out here early to watch, I'm glad you were a part of this. This is really important because this is your future, too."

"We're looking forward to the day when we're launching people on a regular basis," said Fincke. "As graduates of military test pilot schools, we are really excited to see how Starliner's going to behave; we know it's going to be awesome, and we're going to get all kinds of really great test data from it."

The uncrewed flight test, targeted to launch Dec. 17, will provide valuable data on the end-to-end performance of the Atlas V rocket, Starliner spacecraft and ground systems, as well as in-orbit, docking and landing operations. The data will be used as part of NASA's process of certifying Boeing's crew transportation system for carrying astronauts to and from the space station.

"It comes down to trust," said Mann. "I'm talking about trust in the individuals-our fellow Americans-who are building this spacecraft and making this possible. You walk around the factory and there is this amazing attention to detail, and it gives you this great level of confidence," said Mann.

NASA is working in partnership with Boeing and SpaceX to launch astronauts on American rockets and spacecraft from American soil for the first time since 2011. Safe, reliable and cost-effective human transportation to and from the space station will allow for additional research time and increase the opportunity for discovery aboard humanity's testbed for exploration.

Boeing Starliner Crew spacecraft heads to pre-launch processing

Boeing's CST-100 Starliner spacecraft is transported from NASA's Kennedy Space Center to a facility at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on Thursday, Nov. 21, 2019. Later in the day it was placed atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket ahead of Boeing's uncrewed Orbital Flight Test to the International Space Station. Boeing's uncrewed flight test, which is targeted for Dec. 17, will provide valuable data on the end-to-end performance of the rocket, spacecraft and ground systems, as well as, in-orbit and landing operations. The data will be used toward certification of Boeing's crew transportation system for carrying astronauts to and from the space station. NASA's Commercial Crew Program is working with the American aerospace industry through public-private partnerships to launch astronauts on American rockets and spacecraft from American soil for the first time since 2011. The goal of the program is safe, reliable and cost-effective human space transportation to and from the International Space Station. This could allow for additional research time aboard the station and increase the opportunity for discovery aboard humanity's testbed for exploration, which includes sending astronauts to the Moon and Mars.

MEASAT selects Arianespace for launch of MEASAT-3d

Arianespace and MEASAT Global Berhad (MEASAT), the leading Malaysian satellite operator, has announced the signature of a launch services contract for MEASAT-3d. MEASAT-3d, a new multi-mission telecommunications satellite, will be launched into geostationary transfer orbit by an Ariane 5 heavy-lift launch vehicle from the Guiana Space Center, Europe's Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana (South America) in 2021. MEASAT, the leading Malaysian satellite operator, operates five satellites, providing coverage over Asia, Middle East, Africa, Europe and Australia. MEASAT-3d will serve the growth requirements of 4G and 5G mobile networks in Malaysia while continuing to provide redundancy and additional distribution capacity for video in HD, 4K, and ultimately 8K in the Asia-Pacific region. The satellite will weigh approximately 5,734 kg. at launch, and offers an operational life of 19 years. When positioned at 91.5 degrees East, MEASAT-3d will be co-located with MEASAT-3a and MEASAT-3b satellites to replace and enhance capacity in Malaysia, Asia, Middle East and Africa. The new MEASAT-3d satellite will carry multiple payload types: C- and Ku-band payloads for direct-to-home television broadcasting and other telecom services, as well as a high-throughput Ka-band payload for internet connectivity. MEASAT-3d also will carry an L-band navigation payload for Korean satellite operator Kt sat as part of the Korea Augmentation Satellite System.

Airbus Defence and Space built MEASAT-3d using the Eurostar E3000 satellite platform.

Commenting on this latest contract, Arianespace Chief Executive Officer Stephane Israel said: "We are honoured that MEASAT entrusted the launch of MEASAT-3d to Arianespace, renewing a long standing partnership with this Malaysian operator that dates back to 1996.

With one new commercial success for Ariane 5, the Ariane family reasserts itself as the best-suited solution to reach the geostationary orbit, just a few weeks before the 40 years of Ariane and before the advent of Ariane 6 in 2020!"

Exoplanet axis study boosts hopes of complex life, just not next door

"They're out there," goes a saying about extraterrestrials. It would seem more likely to be true in light of a new study on planetary axis tilts. Astrophysicists at the Georgia Institute of Technology modeled a theoretical twin of Earth into other star systems called binary systems because they have two stars. They concluded that 87% of exo-Earths one might find in binary systems should have axis tilts similarly steady to Earth's, an important ingredient for climate stability that favors the evolution of complex life. "Multiple-star systems are common, and about 50% of stars have binary companion stars. So, this study can be applied to a large number of solar systems," said Gongjie Li, the study's co-investigator an assistant professor at Georgia Tech's School of Physics. Single-star solar systems like our own with multiple planets appear to be rarer. The researchers started out contrasting how the Earth's axis tilt, also called obliquity, varies over time with the variation of Mars' axis tilt. Whereas our planet's mild obliquity variations have been great for a livable climate and for evolution, the wild variations of Mars' axis tilt may have helped wreck its atmosphere, as explained in the section below. Then the researchers modeled Earth into habitable, or Goldilocks, zones in Alpha Centauri AB - our solar system's nearest neighbor, a binary system with one star called "A" and the other "B." After that, they expanded the model to a more universal scope.

"We simulated what it would be like around other binaries with multiple variations of the stars' masses, orbital qualities, and so on," said Billy Quarles, the study's principal investigator and a research scientist in Li's lab. "The overall message was positive but not for our nearest neighbor."

Alpha Centauri A actually didn't look bad, but the outlook for mild axis dynamics on an exo-Earth modeled around star B was wretched. This may douse some hopes because Alpha Centauri AB is four lightyears away, and a mission named Starshot with big-name backers plans to launch a space probe to look for signs of advanced life there.

The researchers are publishing their study, which was co-led by Jack Lissauer from NASA Ames Research Center, in Astrophysical Journal on November 19, 2019, under the title: "Obliquity Evolution of Circumstellar Planets in Sun-like Stellar Binaries." The research was funded by the NASA Exobiology Program.

No exoplanets have been confirmed around A or B; an exoplanet has been confirmed around the nearby red dwarf star Proxima Centauri, but it is very likely to be uninhabitable.

Earth? Just right
Even with its ice ages and hot phases, Earth's climatological framework has been calm for hundreds of millions of years - in part because of its mild orbital and axis-tilt dynamics - allowing evolution to take big strides. Wildly varying dynamics, and thus climate, like on Mars would stand to regularly kill off advanced life, stunting evolution.

Earth's orbit around the sun is on a slight incline that seesaws gently and very slowly through a slight precession, a kind of oscillation. As Earth revolves, it shifts position relative to the sun, circling it a little like a spirograph drawing. The orbit also precesses in shape between slightly more and slightly less oblong over 100,000-year periods.

Earth's axis tilt precesses between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees over the course of 41,000 years. Our large moon stabilizes our tilt through its gravitational relationship with Earth, otherwise, bouncy gravitational interconnections with Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter would jolt our tilt with resonances.

"If we didn't have the moon, Earth's tilt could vary by about 60 degrees," Quarles said. "We'd look maybe like Mars, and the precession of its axis appears to have helped deplete its atmosphere."

Mars' axis precesses between 10 degrees and 60 degrees every 2 million years. At the 10-degree tilt, the atmosphere condenses at the poles, creating caps that lock up a lot of the atmosphere in ice. At 60 degrees, Mars could grow an ice belt around its equator.

Universe? Hopeful
In Alpha Centauri AB, star B, about the size of our sun, and the larger star, A, orbit one another at about the distance between Uranus and our sun, which is a very close for two stars in a binary system. The study modeled variations of an exo-Earth orbiting either star but concentrated on a modeled Earth orbit in the habitable zone centered around B, with A being the orbiting star.

A's orbit is very elliptical, passing close by and then moving very far away from B and slinging powerful gravity, which, in the model, overpowered exo-Earth's own dynamics. Its tilt and orbit varied widely; adding our moon to the model didn't help.

"Around Alpha Centauri B, if you don't have a moon, you have a more stable axis than if you do have a moon. If you have a moon, it's pretty much bad news," Quarles said.

Even without a moon and with mild axis variability, complex, Earthlike evolution would seem to have a hard time on the modeled exo-Earth around B.

"The biggest effect you would see is differences in the climate cycles related to how elongated the orbit is. Instead of having ice ages every 100,000 years like on Earth, they may come every 1 million years, be worse, and last much longer," Quarles said.

But a sliver of hope for Earthlike conditions turned up in the model: "Planetary orbit and spin need to precess just right relative to the binary orbit. There is this tiny sweet spot," Quarles said.

When the researchers expanded the model to binary systems in the universe, the probability of gentle obliquity variations ballooned.

"In general, the separation between the stars is larger in binary systems, and then the second star has less of an effect on the model of Earth. The planet's own motion dynamics dominate other influences, and obliquity usually has a smaller variation," Li said. "So, this is quite optimistic."